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Copper Prices Decline on Schedule, Declined More Than Expected

2015-01-26 11:41:01

Non-ferrous metals plate rapid decline in the past two weeks

Last month, as investors sold the global commodities (crude oil fell 17.3 %, iron ore fell by 9.2%), non-ferrous metals in the last two weeks of November has also suffered a sharp decline (copper fell 5.25%, aluminum fell by 0.75%, zinc fell 2%, lead falling 0.53%, only nickel rose by 2.5%). Which the sharpest decline is in copper. In the fourth quarter policy we believe, due to China copper consumption seasonal demand chain weaker in the fourth quarter and supply. This accelerates that copper will turn the weakest non-ferrous metals from the historical price performance of the strongest metals. Current copper prices fall below our price $ 6,425 per ton at the end. This paper analyzes the fundamentals of weaker copper and some microscopic changes affecting the current price of copper.

Copper supply: mine back and loose, smelting end acceleration

Enter 2014, the supply of copper concentrates by the early effects of the huge investment began to accelerate, we observed first quarter TC / RC refining charges remained at $ 105 / ton & 10.5 cents / lb high, reflecting smelters enhanced bargaining power for the mine. While in the second quarter due to the interference reta of Freeport and other large mining continued to improve once again makes copper supply tightly. Into the third quarter as the negotiations are successful, copper supply returned to loose. November refining charges have reached $ 110 / ton & 11.0 cents / lb or more. We believe that refined copper smelting end bottleneck will gradually open as Chinese smelter expansion and new capacity into production. In the third quarter, we observe refined copper production in China continuous single month record higher. At present, China refined copper cumulative increase of 11.4%. All this reflects the refined copper supply is constantly accelerating.

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